Outbound tourism by UK residents in the UK - Data and Analysis (2001-2033)

The total volume of outbound tourist trips by UK residents is contingent on a number of economic and socio-economic factors, including: the pound sterling exchange rate, whereby a change in the value of the pound against a foreign currency will influence the affordability of making a trip overseas; household disposable income, which again determines the feasibility of making a trip abroad in terms of cost relative to affordability; consumer sentiment, with regards to the stability of personal finances and whether or not a trip abroad is affordable; weather conditions and security concerns, which influence consumer behaviour and drive the propensity to, or not to, go on holiday; business activity and confidence, whereby corporate travel requirements contribute towards outbound tourism; and personal or miscellaneous reasons (e.g. visiting relatives, attendance at overseas sporting events). According to the latest version of the "Travel trends estimate: UK residents' visits abroad" publication, 55.5 million trips abroad by UK residents in 2023 were for "holiday" purposes, followed by "visiting friends or relatives" and "business". In the same publication, the ONS also reports some 21% of visits abroad by UK residents in 2023 were to Spain, making it the most popular overseas destination for UK residents, followed by; France, the United States and the Republic of Ireland.In June 2016, Brexit caused market uncertainty and political headwinds, which shook up investment markets, and led to a sharp depreciation the pound sterling exchange rate making it more expensive for UK residents to travel abroad. Despite this, 2016-17 saw the total number of outbound tourist trips by UK residents continue to rise. Considering a significant proportion of trips made are booked in advance, holidays and business trips booked prior to the referendum and scheduled after contributed to the growth in overall outbound tourism.Accordingly, total outbound tourist trips by UK residents increased by 5% year-on-year in 2016-17. While the depleted exchange rate made overseas travel less affordable, and low sentiment across the economy, wage pressure and a slowdown in the job market, all associated with market uncertainties borne out of the UK's withdrawal from the EU bloc, lowered the propensity to spend on holidays and other non-essential overseas travel, the total volume of outbound trips made by UK residents continued on an upwards trajectory in 2017-18 (6.3%) through 2018-19 (4.8%). These increases were driven by factors including, albeit not limited to, a marked uptick in business travel; improved airlinks to emerging market destinations; and UK residents seemingly making a greater volume of trips to Europe, capitalising on free movement.While trends in outbound travel across the first three quarters of 2019-20 were broadly similar to the preceding two years, the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic stunted travel markets in Q4 (January-March) of 2019-20. As the coronavirus pandemic continued to spread, countries across the globe responded with travel bans and advisories, resulting in a plummet in demand for flights; many airlines have been forced to slash routes or otherwise ground entire fleets, offering customer the option to amend or cancel travel plans. Accordingly, a Q4 decline has exerted a drag on total outbound tourist trips by UK residents over the full financial year, resulting in what was a 3.6% year-on-year decline in 2019-20 overall. The continued spread of the coronavirus through 2020-21 saw the UK government enact a number of additional policies aimed at reducing international travel. This includes mandating two-week isolation period for those returning from visit to countries with high coronavirus rates. As a result, outbound tourism fell by an unprecedented 87.8% in 2020-21. In the three months through June 2020, outbound tourism fell over 96% year-on-year. Outbound tourism expanded sharply in 2021-22, albeit still significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, as lockdown measures ease and the government has made it easier to travel to low-rate countries. In February 2022, pre-departure testing was removed for the majority of travellers and all domestic lockdown measures were eased. In the same month, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was initiating a "special military operation" in the Donbas region, and proceeded to launch a full-scale invasion into Ukraine. This led to a wave of sanctions which included a ban on Russian operated flights and the UK Foreign Office has since advised against all travel to Russia and Russian operated flights.This is expected to weigh on outbound tourism by UK residents to affected routes and to Russia itself. Although outbound numbers have recovered significantly, a series of flight cancellations due to staff shortages weigh on the number of overseas visitors. British Airways and other carriers cancelled several flights which reduced overseas travel. Overall, outbound tourism is expected to soar at a compound annual rate of 28.5% to 97.4 million people in the five years through 2026-27. The cost of living has placed pressure on households, restricting outbound tourism somewhat. The US-Iran conflict is likely to dampen UK outbound tourism growth in both 2025-26 and 2026-27, mainly via higher airfares from elevated oil prices and widespread flight rerouting and cancellations, but it should not cause an outright collapse in overall departures. Conflict-related safety concerns and disruption will particularly curb trips to the Middle East and some long-haul destinations, though many UK travellers will substitute towards European and other perceived "safer" markets instead, softening the overall impact on outbound numbers.