Australia / Analyst Insights
Movie Madness: Strong Project Pipelines Keep the Reels Turning

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by Daisy Feller
Mar 23 2020

The Video Post-Production Services industry has performed well over the past five years, with industry revenue expected to increase at an annualised 1.6% over the five years through 2019-20, to total $470.0 million. Australian businesses have undertaken work on many high profile international projects over the period. These projects include:

  • Peter Rabbit
  • Captain Marvel
  • Game of Thrones
  • Black Panther

However, the COVID-19 pandemic is anticipated to have a slight negative effect on demand for industry services over the next five years.

Several major film projects have announced that they will be delaying production due to the pandemic. Notably, Baz Luhrmann’s currently untitled Elvis Presley biopic has halted production in Australia after supporting actor Tom Hanks tested positive for COVID-19. In addition, production for The Batman (dir. Matt Reeves) and Fantastic Beasts 3 (dir. David Yates) has temporarily halted.

Industry firms perform work on films that have already been shot. Consequently, delays in production are not anticipated to significantly affect post-production services in the current year, as industry firms have existing project pipelines. In addition, industry firms are less likely to need to halt work than their counterparts in the Motion Picture and Video Production industry, as industry operations generally do not involve international travel. Furthermore, many industry employees are able to work from home, as industry services have largely shifted to being performed digitally.

Many films have also announced delayed release dates as a result of fewer consumers visiting the cinema due to social distancing measures. Highly anticipated films No Time to Die (dir. Cary Joji Fukunaga) and A Quiet Place Part II (dir. John Krasinski) have announced that they will be delaying release dates. The release of Peter Rabbit 2, which was animated by industry firm Animal Logic, will also be delayed until August 2020. These delays are not expected to significantly affect the industry. However, declining revenue for production companies could have flow-on effects for industry firms, as they depend on these companies for their project pipelines.

Overall, the Video Post-Production Services industry is anticipated to perform relatively well over the next five years despite hiccups along project pipelines caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Industry revenue is anticipated to rise at an annualised 1.5% over the five years through 2024-25, to total $505.7 million.

Despite delayed movie release dates, the pandemic is anticipated to boost demand for films and programs for consumers to watch at home. However, this demand will not likely have a significant positive effect on the Video and DVD Hire Outlets industry. These firms have struggled over the past five years as consumers have increasingly preferred to view content on streaming services such as Netflix and Stan. Industry revenue is anticipated to decline by 28.6% in the current year, to $80.0 million. Furthermore, the industry is forecast to continue declining at an annualised 16.5% over the five years through 2024-25, to $32.5 million. Industry demand is projected to come mostly from automated DVD rental kiosks as traditional outlets that require staff become unviable due to intense price competition from streaming services.

 

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