What's driving performance?

1. Yield improvements and agronomic innovation

The biggest long-term driver has been productivity growth. Canadian soybean yields have risen significantly over the past decade as growers adopted improved seed genetics, precision agriculture tools and better crop management practices. In 2024, Canadian soybean production reached about 7.6 million tonnes, up 8.4% year over year, supported by higher yields, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. IBISWorld

Industry data show that 2024 delivered record soybean yields in both Eastern and Western Canada. Western Canadian yields increased 21% from 2023 levels, while Eastern Canada also achieved record yields.

2. Strong export orientation

Canada exports the majority of its soybean production, making global demand a major performance driver. Soybeans are among Canada's most valuable crops, with roughly 70% of production — around 5.5 million tonnes — heading abroad. Demand is supported by food-grade soybeans, livestock feed markets and growing global protein consumption.

3. Geographic concentration in high-performing regions

Ontario remains the industry's powerhouse, accounting for roughly half of Canadian soybean production, followed by Quebec and Manitoba. These provinces benefit from favourable growing conditions, established infrastructure and proximity to export channels.

The industry's expansion westward has also helped diversify production risk. Manitoba, in particular, has become a major soybean-growing province over the past decade.

4. Domestic crushing and value-added processing

Another positive trend is growing domestic processing demand. Canada crushed roughly 1.69 million tonnes of soybeans in 2024, producing soybean meal and oil for livestock feed, food and industrial uses. IBISWorld

Expansion of oilseed processing capacity across Canada is increasing domestic demand for soybeans and reducing reliance on exports alone, creating a more diversified revenue base for producers.

5. Crop economics

Farmers increasingly consider soybeans attractive because of their relatively favourable input requirements compared with some competing crops. Farmgate prices fell to about $487 per tonne in the 2024–25 season, but AAFC's June 2026 outlook projects a modest recovery to roughly $545 per tonne in 2025–26 as supply conditions stabilize — helping offset persistently high fertilizer and labour costs.

Key risks and constraints

Weather volatility

Despite technological advances, weather remains the largest uncertainty. Statistics Canada found that soybean yields are highly dependent on precipitation and temperature patterns, with drought conditions in parts of Western Canada and excessive dryness in some Eastern regions affecting crop prospects.

Climate volatility is likely to increase production swings from year to year.

Global price pressure

Soybeans are globally traded commodities. Prices are heavily influenced by production in the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Large global harvests can pressure prices even when Canadian production is strong. AAFC outlooks indicate soybean prices may face modest downward pressure despite healthy production prospects because of ample global supplies.

Trade and geopolitical uncertainty

Export-dependent industries are exposed to changes in trade policy, tariffs, logistics disruptions and geopolitical tensions. AAFC continues to identify trade uncertainty and transportation risks as important factors affecting grain and oilseed markets. IBISWorld

Outlook

Near-term (1–2 years)

The outlook is generally positive but less explosive than the growth seen over the past decade.

AAFC forecasts soybean acreage to remain stable to modestly higher, supported by crop rotation requirements, competitive production economics and continuing demand from processors and export markets. Oilseed area overall is expected to expand, including soybeans.

Production is expected to remain historically strong, although annual output will fluctuate with weather. Some forecasts suggest Canadian soybean production could return toward 7.5 to 7.6 million tonnes under normal growing conditions.

Medium-term (3–5 years)

The industry's fundamentals remain favourable:

Growing global demand for protein and vegetable oils.
Expansion of domestic crushing capacity.
Continued improvements in seed genetics and farm technology.
Strong competitive position in food-grade soybean exports.

However, growth is likely to be steadier rather than dramatic, because acreage expansion opportunities are somewhat limited and global competition, especially from Brazil, remains intense.

If you want to work with the underlying numbers directly, you can download the Excel file for this report.

Bottom line

Canada's soybean industry is performing well primarily because of record yields, strong export demand, improving technology and growing domestic processing capacity. The sector's outlook remains constructive, with production expected to stay near historically high levels. The main risks are weather variability, global price weakness and trade disruptions, but overall the industry appears positioned for continued moderate growth rather than a major boom. IBISWorld

Hi, how can I assist?