Industry Exposure Intensity by Country
Latest Update: March 20, 2020
As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has progressed, IBISWorld has continued to evaluate best approaches to measuring exposures. The early impacts focused on trade have given way to solidifying domestic economic impacts with direct relationships to pandemic containment. As a result, the exposure model has been tilted toward the effects of social distancing efforts and the materializing impacts on demand. This has been accomplished by analyzing industries that rely on in-person business and including this exposure into the overall exposure intensity level. In addition to the inclusion of this variable, the list of business environment risks has been expanded to accommodate our evolving perspective on industry exposures. As the situation has deteriorated, exposures to consumer demand, employment disruptions, securities markets, and business investment have been added to the model.
March 18, 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak is affecting organizations and industries around the world. IBISWorld is closely monitoring the situation and coordinating analysis efforts with our industry teams to keep you in the know. This exposure analysis tool will help you detect potential points of exposure that will inform your strategy and guide our work to integrate the latest trends into our industry research.
This map highlights the countries where IBISWorld is measuring industry exposure, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. Within the map, countries are highlighted by the share of industries with High exposure.
How to Use This Tool
Selecting a sector from the left of screen will populate a sortable list of industries. Industries are sortable by their trade exposure to China, supply chain exposure to trade, and exposure to business environment risks and an overall exposure intensity level. This top-level analysis provides an indicator of exposure to early disruptions already resulting from the virus as well as areas of interest for potential further research.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Appendix
Update: March 20, 2020
The core methodology of the listing has not been changed; however, new variables have been added to the overall exposure intensity level and the sub-components have been re-weighted. The existing exposures to China and known disruption in productivity and demand are still a key component of the analysis. As the situation in different countries has progressed, the near-term effects of government guidance, market volatility, corporate guidance, and early consumer response have solidified. This has resulted in a greater emphasis on identifying quantifiable exposures in effected industries that had originally been targeted for more qualitative responses. Trade exposures and the related supply chain exposures remain an important point of study and are likely to be increasingly relevant in the longer-term if the current shocks have a lasting impact on global demand or create paradigm shifts in trade.
The definitions section has been updated to reflect new model parameters. Of note, industries with a direct relationship with the effects of social distancing efforts have been identified and weighted accordingly. This includes two tiers for varying aspects of exposure. For example, Accommodation and Food Services are given a higher weight in response to known operational disruptions, whereas Retail Trade industries may not be experiencing direct losses as consumers continue to stock up. Additionally, the number of economic drivers cross-referenced against industry exposures has been increased dramatically. As the outlook as deteriorated, it has become necessary to include a broader set of external performance threats to industries in each country. These alterations result in a new distribution of exposure levels within the changed categories, which means the cut-offs for “High”, “Medium” and “Low” have been altered to represent the new underlying distribution. Additionally, the weightings in the aggregation to the overall Industry Exposure level have been adjusted to reflect new opinions. There are now 5 sub-components, each scored 0 to 1. Trade, China Factors have equal weights using a multiplier of 1. Supply Chain Links are weighted with a multiplier of 2. Business Environment Risks and a Social Distancing dummy are weighted with a multiplier of 3.
March 18, 2020
The exposure listings in the table are designed to identify industries that may require special attention in dealing with the ongoing COVID-19 situation. The metrics chosen for the analysis follow IBISWorld’s available data at the time of publication. Importantly, the presentation of exposure provides no discrete measure of exposure, nor does it assign an explicit direction or intensity. The purpose of this analysis is to leverage the body of research available in IBISWorld’s database and study the existing exposures. Trade exposure with China is chosen as a starting point due to the early progression of the disease and the operational disruptions that have already occurred.
For most countries researched by IBISWorld, material disruptions to production are less easily highlighted. These early disruptions may require attention in industries with direct trade exposure; material disruption in local production is likely to be due to second-hand exposure in the supply chain. The broader disruption to global trade is captured with the overall Exposure Intensity with a measure of direct industry exposure to imports and exports. Business Environment Risks have been chosen to reflect existing exposures to travel and as a method of identifying industries where key economic indicators are likely to have an altered path. By aggregating the factors, the goal is to demonstrate specific potential exposures in addition to an overall measure of how multiple factors can magnify total exposure in during a negative situation.
As more information becomes available IBISWorld will continue to reassess the information used to highlight exposures and will update information as needed.
Exposure Table
Labeling Criteria
“High” indicates that the industry is in the top-20 percent of industries by exposure factor withing a country. “Low” indicates the industry in the bottom-20 percent and “Medium” is assigned to all industries in the middle 60 percent.
Components - China Factors
China Import Exposure
2019 Industry imports from China divided by total industry imports.
China Export Exposure
2019 Industry exports from China divided by total industry exports.
Supply Chain Links
Demand Import Exposure
Revenue weighted import exposure of demand industries. The measure captures a weighted average of import/domestic demand for each listed demand industry.
Demand China Import Exposure
Revenue weighted China import exposure of demand industries. The measure captures a weighted average of China import exposure for each listed demand industry.
Supply Import Exposure
Revenue weighted import exposure of supplier industries. The measure captures a weighted average of import/domestic demand for each listed supplier industry.
Supply China Import Exposure
Revenue weighted China import exposure of supplier industries. The measure captures a weighted average of China import exposure for each listed supplier industry.
Demand Export Exposure
Revenue weighted export exposure of demand industries. The measure captures a weighted average of exports/revenue for each listed demand industry.
Demand China Export Exposure
Revenue weighted China export exposure of demand industries. The measure captures a weighted average of China export exposure for each listed demand industry.
Supply Export Exposure
Revenue weighted export exposure of supplier industries. The measure captures a weighted average of exports/revenue for each listed supplier industry.
Supply China Export Exposure
Revenue weighted China export exposure of supplier industries. The measure captures a weighted average of China export exposure for each listed supplier industry.
Business Environment Risks
The following level-1 list is broken down by specific country-level business environment exposures. The level-2 list includes global price factors that are likely to be impacted in the event of a broad demand and production shocksLEVEL 1
United States
Total exports; Total imports; Total trade value; Domestic trips by US residents; International trips by US residents; Inbound trips by non-US residents; Number of physician visits; GDP of mainland China.
Canada
Total exports; Total imports; Total trade value; International trips by Canadian residents; Inbound international travel; GDP of mainland China; Business sentiment index.
United Kingdom
International tourist numbers; Outbound tourism by UK resident; Business confidence index; Value of goods exports; Value of goods imports; Trade Factors.
Germany
Total exports; Total imports; Business confidence index; Consumer confidence index; Inbound International Travel; Sea cargo volume; Production Volume; Order Volume; GDP.
Australia
Domestic tourist visitor nights; Domestic price of iron and steel; International tourist visitor nights; Domestic price of beef; Business tourist nights; Domestic price of gold; International travel by Australians; Domestic price of milk; International travel to Australia; Real GDP growth; Consumer sentiment index; GDP of Mainland China; Number of foreign students; Total tourist visitor nights; Cash rate.
LEVEL 2Total value of world trade; World price of natural gas; World price of rubber; World price of uranium; World price of cotton; World price of steaming coal; World price of sugar; World price of coking coal; World price of tobacco; World price of iron ore; World price of wheat; World price of copper; World price of coffee; World price of zinc; World price of cocoa; World price of lead; World price of wood pulp; World price of aluminum; World price of crude oil.
Exposure Ranking Methodology
The overall Exposure Intensity measure is a composite of the other factors with the additional factor of Overall Trade Exposure. Overall Trade Exposure has two sub-components. These factors are reflected both as having a direct impact on the industry, in addition to being sub-components of the supply chain links:Imports / Domestic Demand %
Industry Imports for consumption divided by Domestic Demand (Revenue - Exports + Imports)
Exports / Revenue %
Industry Exports divided by total industry revenue
Each factor (China Exposure, Supply Chain Links, Business Environment Risk, and Overall Trade Exposure) ais calculated as the sum of their individual components. Each of these sums is given a percentage rank compared with all other industries in the reporting country. The aggregate of these scores results in the Exposure Intensity.