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src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/TOCtopleft.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td class="WhiteTop"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/TOCtopright.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" style="width: 354px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td class="DarkGray"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td valign="top"> <table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td rowspan="8"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="170" width="1" /> </td> <td colspan="2"> <p class="heading1"> IN THIS EDITION:</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="30" align="center"> <a href="#aIndustry"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /></a> </td> <td class="tdToc"> <a class="menuitem" href="#aFeature">Feature Article: Recession! into 2008?</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aFocus"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td class="tdToc"> <a class="menuitem" href="#aFocus">Trends: China  Global Disappointment?</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aRisk"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td class="tdToc"> <a class="menuitem" href="#aRisk">Risk Analysis</a> </td> </tr> <!--<tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aEconomic"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td> <a class="menuitem" href="#aEconomic">Economics & Demographics</a> </td> </tr>--> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aEconomic"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td> <a class="menuitem" href="#aEconomic">Economic Scoreboard </a> </td> </tr> <!-- <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aRuthven"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td> <a class="menuitem" href="#aUpdated">Phil Ruthven - Presentation Material</a> </td> </tr>--> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aNew"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td> <a class="menuitem" href="#aNew">What's New?</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aUpdated"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td> <a class="menuitem" href="#aUpdated">Updated Reports</a> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td class="DarkGray"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" style="width: 354px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/TOCbottomleft.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td class="WhiteBottom"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/TOCbottomright.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td valign="top"> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"> <tr> <td valign="top"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/usdate.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> <tr> <td height="10" /> </tr> <tr> <td> <table border="0" style="width: 256px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/PinkTOCtopleft.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td class="WhiteTop" style="background-color: #DDCDC6;"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/PinkTOCtopright.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" style="background-color: #DDCDC6; width: 256px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td class="DarkGray"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="148" width="1" /> </td> <td height="146" width="308"> <p class="heading1" style="text-align: center;"> DID YOU KNOW?</p> <p class="textCenter"> Political organizations in the US are expected to increase their revenue by over 12% in 2008, as private and corporate donors attempt to buy influence leading up to the November Presidential election. </p> </td> <td class="DarkGray"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" style="width: 256px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/PinkTOCbottomleft.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td class="WhiteBottom" style="background-color: #DDCDC6;"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/PinkTOCbottomright.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <!-- end header--> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"> <!-- main content--> <!-- industry in focus article --> <!--<tr> <td> <a id="aIndustry" name="aFeature"></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> Easter</p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620" align="left"> <p>You know its Easter when the sky greys and, helped by daylight savings, darkens earlier each night. You know it's close when fluffy bunnies and bright yellow chicks start to appear in the windows of high street shops. But most of all you know its Easter when you see brightly covered chocolate eggs and animals, and smell the freshly baked hot cross buns. With Easter now behind us, it is a good time to take a look at the confectionary manufacturing industry. </p> </td> </tr> </table> </td> --> <tr> <td> <a id="a3" name="aFeature"></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> Recession!</p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620" align="left"> <p> With economic forecasters increasingly suggesting that the US economy faces a recession in the second half of 2008, and some insisting it is here already, a stock market that seems to be taking daily plunges into the red, and a property market which is teetering on the brink of collapse, it could be considered a time of bleak outlooks for US industries. However, IBISWorld research has uncovered some industries which appear ready to buck the trend. </p><p>When the number of housing foreclosures is coupled with a declining stock market, the result is a bonanza for the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=1474">Collection Agencies</a> industry, which is expected to increase revenue by around 10% in 2008, as banks and other investment houses chase up those who have ceased making payments, while other companies endeavor to settle some of their doubtful debts leading into volatile and pessimistic economic times. </p><p>Also, during periods of stock market instability and high activity, advisors and consultants tend to experience a minor boom, as investors of all shades attempt to mitigate or minimize their losses. As such, the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=1316">Investment Advice</a> industry is looking to exhibit growth of 9% this year, while <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=1421">Management Consultants </a> are looking to expand by around 4.2% for the year. Banks that offer high-interest returns on savings accounts may also benefit from current conditions, as investors looking to escape a falling market cannot rely on the traditional fallback of a solid property market. </p><p>Also, with a Presidential election looming, and healthcare and poverty looking like becoming dominant issues of the campaign, a future president may seek to alleviate the suffering of poorer Americans, as such boosting growth among welfare industries like the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=1599">Community Care Facilities</a> industry, which should grow by 5.5%. </p><p>Finally, if the trend continues over the longer term, IBISWorld expects to see a shift in the spending habits of American consumers, away from high value, branded, luxury goods towards simpler, less expensive items. So if this keeps up, it's goodbye Bloomingdales and hello Wal-Mart for a lot of US shoppers! </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <!--<p class="ReportSectionTitle"> <br /> Industry reports relating to this article are:</p> <table border="0"> <tr> <td width="30" align="center"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/documenticon.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=1123">Scheduled Air Transportation Industry</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="30" align="center"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/documenticon.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=1127">Nonscheduled Air Transportation in the US</a> </td> </tr> </table>--> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <!--end industry in focus article --> <tr> <!-- company focus article --> <td border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <a id="aFocus" name="aFocus"></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> <br /> China  Global Disappointment? </p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620"> <p> For all the talk going on over recent years regarding the staggering growth of the Chinese economy, and its apparent imperviousness to the economic follies of other major nations, could it be that there are cracks appearing in the golden façade of Chinese growing global dominance? </p><p>IBISWorld research has discovered a number of industries in China which defy the trend of extraordinary growth. While the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.cn/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=159">Bottled and Canned Water Manufacturing</a> industry is expected to more than double in size in 2008, to US$10.5 billion, the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.cn/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=163">Tea Manufacturing</a> industry is resigned to a paltry 8.5% growth for the same period, causing serious concern to Chinese tea drinkers, as such a clearly established industry struggles to match the growth rates of newer industries. </p><p>While the Mobile <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.cn/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=639">Communications and Terminal Equipment Manufacturing</a> industry expands by more than 60% to US$131.9 billion, the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.cn/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=802">Wired Telecommunication Services</a> industry will stagnate, with forecast growth of only 5.5% in 2008, as China adopts new, mobile communications technology, rendering such outdated functions as land lines obsolete. </p><p>As Chinese citizens' wages increase each year, and the country shifts away from bicycles and motorbikes towards larger, more opulent cars, the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.cn/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=578">Motorcycle Manufacturing</a> industry is bracing itself for a tough year ahead, with growth of a mere 12%, reaching revenue of US$12.5 billion. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.cn/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=571">Car Manufacturers</a> are managing to struggle along at 20% per year, reaching a forecast US$161.6 billion in 2008. </p><p>So for all the talk of an impending US recession, failing share markets around the world, a housing market on the brink of collapse and exports not rising as much as they should, spare a thought for the poor Chinese industries, battling to make their way in a struggling business environment. </p> </td> </table> </td> </tr> <!--end industry focus article --> <tr> <td> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td> <a id="a5" name="aRisk" class=""></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> <br /> Love is in the Air  Valentine's Day 2008 <br /> <br /> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620"><p>Forgetful partners everywhere dread three days of the year more than any others: birthdays, anniversaries and Valentine's Day. The latter is at hand, and those with enough many are set to spend big. According to the National Retail Federation, the average consumer plans to spend $122.98 for the occasion this year, up from $119.67 in 2007. </p><p>Their Valentine's Day survey for this year indicated that 57% of those planning to celebrate the occasion would buy a card, 36% would buy flowers, while 48% plan to take that special someone to dinner. </p><p>Sadly for the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&riskid=1096">Florists industry</a>, Valentine's Day comes but once a year. Poor forecast growth in per capita disposable income, combined with declining consumer sentiment, is expected to hit discretionary spending and help industry revenue decline by 2% this year. IBISWorld believes that the industry is seen as being in the 'decline' stage of its economic life cycle, with competition from supermarkets and mass merchandisers undermining performance. From a risk standpoint, IBISWorld analysis has lifted the risk rating of this industry from MEDIUM-LOW in 2007 to MEDIUM-HIGH in 2008. </p><p>The <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&riskid=1674">Full-Service Restaurants industry</a> does not fare much better for the year as a whole, with slow growth in disposable income again the culprit. IBISWorld predicts that revenue for this industry will decline by 2.6% over 2008, helping boost risk to a VERY HIGH level, from the previous year's HIGH. </p><p>Below is an outline of the historical and forecast risk score of the above mentioned industries. These can be compared to overall risk for the US economy. </p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tbl"> <tr> <td width="" class="tbcDarkGreen"> <strong>Industry Name</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2004</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2005</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2006</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2007</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2008</strong> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen-leftalign"> <strong>Florists</strong> </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.22 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.86 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.64 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.69 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 5.54 </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen-leftalign"> <strong>Full-Service Restaurants</strong> </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.94 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 6.72 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 5.76 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 6.07 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 7.31 </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen-leftalign"> <strong>US Economy</strong> </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.56 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 5.01 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.97 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.97 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.99 </td> </tr> </table> <tr> <td> <p class="ReportSectionTitle"> <br /> Industry reports relating to this article are:</p> <table border="0"> <tr> <td width="30" align="center"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/documenticon.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&riskid=1096">Florist Industry</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="30" align="center"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com/common/newsletter/images/documenticon.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&riskid=1674">Full Service Restaurants</a> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <!-- end industry risk article --> <!--end industry focus article --> <tr> <!-- economics article --> <td> <a id="aEconomic" name="aEconomic" class=""></a> <!-- <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td> <a id="aEconomic" name="aEconomic" class=""></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> <br /> Economics and Demographics: Exchange Rates ? Australian dollar vs US dollar. </p> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td width="620"> <p> Over the second half of FY2005-06, the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/bed/retail.aspx?bedid=90"> Australian dollar</a> continued to fluctuate around the US$0.75 mark. The Aussie fell to a low of US$0.7021 in late March, but recovered to a high of US$0.7692 in mid-May. The Australian unit ended the financial year slightly below the annual average of US$0.7572. At the end of June, the Australian dollar was buying US$0.7433. </p> <p> The Australian dollar has been appreciating against the US dollar since its lows in 2001. The combination of low US interest rates, which created a large interest rate differential, and the commodity boom that has boosted demand for the Australian dollar. </p> <p> In the second quarter of 2006 the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/bed/retail.aspx?bedid=383"> Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a> rose by 1.6%. This pushed the headline inflation rate up to 4% and the underlying inflation rate to 3% (the upper end of the Australian Reserve Bank's target range). In the US, consumer inflation slowed sharply in July and increased only 0.2% in August ? a reduction of half from the July figure. </p> <p> Easing inflationary pressures are evidence of a slowing US economy. With Australian inflation growing a higher rate than the US, interest rate changes will help determine the exchange rate. In August, the Reserve bank in Australia increased <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/bed/retail.aspx?bedid=2610"> interest rates</a> to 6% and put Australia on inflation rate alert. When the US Fed met in August, they left rates unchanged in light of recent consumer prices and seem unlikely to increase rates when they meet again in September. IBISWorld forecasts that the Australian dollar will slowly devalue over the next year period. For the five year outlook the Australian dollar is estimated to buy on average US$0.65. </p> </td> </tr> </table>--> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td> <a id="a4" name="aEconomic" class=""></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> <br /> Economic Scoreboard & Observations</p> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620"> <ul> <li>Advance data for the fourth quarter of 2007 indicates that real GDP growth slowed to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 0.6% for the quarter. The housing slump continued to be the most significant anchor on economic performance, with residential investment declining 23.9%, the largest decrease in the eight consecutive quarters of negative growth for this indicator. Overall, gross private fixed investment decreased by 10.2% for the fourth quarter. </li><li>Growth in real personal consumption expenditures slowed to 2%, even with the stimulus of Black Friday sales. Weaker consumer confidence combined with the depreciating US dollar to result in import growth of only 0.3% (with imports being a subtraction from GDP). Exports, which had provided a boost to GDP with growth of 19.1% in the third quarter, grew at a rate of 3.9%. </li><li>Private nonresidential investment remained strong overall, but recorded its second consecutive quarter of more modest growth. Investment in nonresidential structures grew by 15.8%, and investment in equipment and software expanded by 3.8%. Growth in government expenditure and investment was 2.6%, buoyed by state and local government investment growth of 4%. </li><li>Preliminary employment figures for January 2008 indicate that nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 17,000 for the month, the first such decrease since August 2003 should this figure not be revised upward into positive territory. However, the unemployment rate slightly declined to 4.9%, from the previous month's 5%, following the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual adjustment of its population controls.</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" align="left" width="620"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td width="620" align="left"> <strong></strong> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td colspan="3" style="padding: 3px;" align="left" width="620"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tbl"> <tr> <td class="tbcDarkGreen"> Economic Scoreboard </td> <td class="tbcLightGreen"> 2006 </td> <td class="tbcLightGreen"> 2007 </td> <td class="tbcLightGreen"> 2007:Q1 </td> <td class="tbcLightGreen"> 2007:Q2 </td> <td class="tbcLightGreen"> 2007:Q3 </td> <td class="tbcLightGreen"> 2007:Q4 </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen" colspan="8"> Annual change, % </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen"> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/bed/retail.aspx?bedtid=360&bedpid=2434&bedid=2436&chid=1"> Gross domestic product (GDP)</a> </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 2.9 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 2.2 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 0.6 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 3.8 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 4.9 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 0.6 </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen"> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com/bed/retail.aspx?bedtid=360&bedpid=2437&bedid=363&chid=1"> Personal consumption expenditures</a> </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 3.1 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 2.9 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 3.7 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 1.4 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 2.8 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 2.0 </td> </tr>