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Every week, it seems, another collection of statistics appears in the broadsheets announcing the continued slide of the US economy into recession. Economic pundits claim the economy already IS in recession, and Ben Bernanke, the head of the Federal Reserve, uttered the 'R' word in a recent Senate hearing.

However, the combination of a collapsing US dollar, coupled with rising inflation in Europe and Asia, means that conditions are ripe for manufacturers who export heavily, or compete with high numbers of Chinese imports, to exploit positive conditions elsewhere and buck the recessionary trend at home.

For example, the US alcohol production industry is set to boom, with Wine Production increasing by a forecast 5.3% in 2008, and averaging 4.8% per year up to 2013, driven by increasing yields and better quality grapes being developed in what is by global standards a nascent industry. Meanwhile, Liqueur & Spirits Production will share in this growth, with the industry taking the opportunity presented to increase brand penetration and sophistication, driving up domestic demand as imported spirits increase in price.

Private capital investment in mining is forecast to grow at an average annualized rate of 5.5% over the outlook period, while lower interest rates will reduce the required return on many oil and mining infrastructure projects deeming them profitable to undertake. This will drive annual 5.9% growth in the Mining, Oil & Gas Machinery Manufacturing industry, including growth of nearly 10% in 2008 and 2009, clearly bucking the domestic trend.

Meanwhile, the Ophthalmic Lens Manufacturing industry, which produces lenses used in prescription eyewear, is expected to grow by 8.6% and 6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively, as the ageing US population leads to a predictable degradation in the nation's eyesight.

So while the economic tidings are grim, and the papers are full of apocalyptic proclamations, there are many industries in the US which are pushing forward through the adversity, and are looking resilient during tough economic times.

Industry reports relating to this article are:

	Wine Production
	Ophthalmic Lens Manufacturing
	Mining, Oil & Gas Machinery Manufacturing

With the global economy expected to grow by around 4% per year over the next five years, it is instructive to note where much of that growth is expected to come from, and which sectors of the economy will struggle.

And, according to IBISWorld research, it appears that the growth is going to be driven by industries which barely featured on the global economic landscape ten years ago, while traditional sources of income may fall behind the pack.

The fastest growing industries over the five years to 2012 include:

• Biotechnology – forecast growth 12.3% p.a.
• Movie Production and Distribution – forecast growth 11.6% p.a.
• Casinos and Gaming – forecast growth 6.4% p.a.
• Pharmaceuticals and Medicine Manufacturing – forecast growth 6% p.a.

Meanwhile, traditional powerhouse industries are expected to slide:

• Coal Mining - forecast contraction 2.9% p.a.
• Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - forecast contraction 1.2% p.a.
• Sugar Manufacturing - forecast growth 0.3% p.a.
• Newspaper Publishing - forecast growth 0.7% p.a.

As low-wage countries adopt much of the world's manufacturing operations, charging less for their products, the total revenue growth is also expected to be muted, as developed countries continue to send manufacturing centers overseas.

The world's growing concern regarding environmental degradation, coupled with falling supply is expected to slow global resource industries. The tightening of supply is expected to raise prices, but not to the extent that would recover the loss in production.

As for the boom industries, Biotech will become increasingly important as world demand for food increases, India's flourishing film industry will drive growth worldwide, and relaxation of gaming licensing laws is expected to encourage firms involved in gaming to branch into new territories, not to mention the explosion in online gambling.

And speaking of online, the growth in Internet Service Providers is expected to be over 5%, as the whole world gains access to computers and the World Wide Web. In all, extraordinary growth in China and India is expected to drive the global economy, while the move to technology-based industries in developed nations will be the success story of the next decade.

Industry reports relating to this article are:

	Biotechnology
	Movie Production and Distribution
	Casinos and Gaming
	Pharmaceuticals and Medicine Manufacturing
	Coal Mining
	Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
	Sugar Manufacturing
	Newspaper Publishing
	Internet Service Providers

Take Me Out to the Ballgame

April marks the return of Major League Baseball. Fans everywhere are wondering whether the Mitchell Report will result in a cleaner game, and whether the Red Sox can have another spectacular season and defend their World Series title.

Most people know the lyrics to the iconic anthem 'Take Me Out to the Ballgame', including the line "Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack" (though, contrary to the song's next line, most fans would prefer to return home from the game safely). This month, IBISWorld's Risk department takes a look at the level of risk involved in the industries responsible for our in-game snacks.

Peanut farming falls within the Hay & Other Crop Farming industry. Overall risk in this industry is forecast to be at a MEDIUM-HIGH level over 2008. How the peanut segment fares is subject to the outcome of negotiations for the new Farm Bill, with the USDA recommending the removal of the storage subsidy and the removal of a separate payment limit for peanut farming. Overall, IBISWorld predicts that revenue in this industry will decline by 1.6% over 2008.

Risk in the Snack Food Production industry, on the other hand, is expected to be at a MEDIUM level over the outlook period. However, business environment factors such as slow income growth in a weakening labor market and dietary trends favoring reduced fat consumption are of concern for operators in this industry. IBISWorld analysis indicates that revenue in this industry will grow by 3.6% for the year, with strong sales volumes helping to offset lower prices.

Below is an outline of the historical and forecast risk score of the above mentioned industries. These can be compared to overall risk for the US economy.

Industry reports relating to this article are:

	Hay & Other Crop Farming
	Risk in the Snack Food Production